OPay's 2031 Billion-User Target Tests Emerging-Market Scale Limits

OPay has articulated a 2031 vision for one billion users and 10 million merchants, yet the scale required from its present 46 million Nigerian users reveals how far the company must travel in user acquisition and geographic reach.

The company’s chief commercial officer, Elizabeth Wang, says the next target for the fintech is to serve one billion users and create one million jobs by 2031.

Thesis

OPay’s stated ambition to reach one billion users by 2031 rests on rapid multi-market expansion rather than Nigeria-only growth, but current user numbers and the absence of any African fintech precedent at that scale indicate the target functions more as an aspirational investor narrative than a near-term operational plan.

The Setup

Public discussion of OPay’s growth often frames the goal as a five-year sprint, yet primary disclosures from the company tie the milestone explicitly to 2031. This longer horizon changes the interpretation from immediate sprint to sustained multi-year execution across several emerging markets.

OPay currently serves 46 million users in Nigeria according to its own estimates and operates in Egypt, Indonesia, and Pakistan. The July 16 media parley in Lagos reinforced these figures while outlining the broader 2031 objectives.

The Data

At the July 16 media parley, OPay’s Chief Technology Officer Dotun Adekunle told the room that the company now holds records for more than 46 million users in its database, powered by a backend built on thousands of APIs that keep the app’s products and ecosystem connected. Technext reported the same session, confirming the 46 million user count alongside targets of one billion users, 10 million merchants and one to three million jobs by 2031.

A May 10, 2024 PRNewswire release stated that by April 2024, OPay has established a robust foothold in emerging markets, serving over 50 million users and 1 million merchants, boasting monthly transaction volumes surpassing $12 billion. PRNewswire also recorded the company’s vision to serve 1 billion users and 10 million merchants, ultimately creating 3 million job opportunities by 2031.

Independent analyses place OPay’s active wallets between 45 million and 50 million, with monthly active transacting users rising from 25.13 million in 2024 to 39.32 million in 2025. Total payment volume estimates range from $9.2 billion in one 2025 snapshot to over $60 billion annually in another, showing substantial but uneven monetization progress.

Techpoint Africa compares these numbers to M-Pesa, which leads the continent with over 70 million customers, noting that no African fintech has reached one billion users. Techpoint Africa places OPay’s 46 million Nigerian users against the country’s population of more than 200 million, underscoring the domestic ceiling.

The Breakdown

Current Scale Versus Required Growth

OPay’s reported 46 to 50 million users represent roughly 23 percent of Nigeria’s population, a strong domestic position yet still far below the 1 billion global target. Historical data shows the company grew from 5 million users in 2021 to the current range, indicating an average annual addition of roughly 10 million users in recent years. Sustaining that pace across additional markets would require consistent replication of Nigeria’s agent network density in Egypt, Pakistan and Indonesia simultaneously.

Daily active users stand near 20 million and monthly active users near 36 million, suggesting high engagement within the existing base. However, converting these into the additional hundreds of millions needed implies either deeper penetration in current markets or successful launches in new ones where OPay lacks the same brand recognition.

Geographic Expansion and Competitive Context

OPay’s operations beyond Nigeria center on Egypt and Pakistan, with Indonesia also referenced in coverage. BusinessModelCanvasTemplate notes the shift toward regional diversification after the 2021 Series C, which valued the company above $2 billion. The strategy targets mass-market consumers and informal merchants in Francophone West Africa as well, yet execution details remain limited.

M-Pesa’s 70 million customers across multiple African countries set the current continental benchmark. OPay’s second-place ranking by user numbers is notable, but the gap to one billion requires crossing not only population limits but also regulatory and infrastructure differences in each new jurisdiction.

Monetization, Profitability and IPO Signals

OPay reported its first monthly profit in the May 2024 release, coinciding with monthly transaction volumes above $12 billion. Gross transaction value estimates climbed from $166.2 billion in 2024 to $358 billion in 2025 in one analysis, reflecting volume growth even as the company moves from hyper-growth to monetization focus.

The company has hired Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase to prepare a US IPO targeting around $4 billion valuation. MyStocks Africa links these plans to SoftBank Vision Fund backing, positioning the billion-user narrative as central to investor storytelling.

What It Means

For founders and operators in African fintech, the 2031 timeline underscores that sustained multi-market execution matters more than headline user counts. Replicating agent networks and regulatory approvals across borders will test operational discipline more than initial product launches did.

Investors evaluating the planned IPO should weigh the $4 billion valuation target against the distance between 50 million current users and the 2031 goal. Regulators in Nigeria and expansion markets will face pressure to accommodate scaling infrastructure while maintaining consumer protections, particularly around agent networks serving informal merchants.

What We Don't Know

The data does not reveal how OPay intends to achieve user growth outside Nigeria at the required velocity, nor the precise contribution expected from each new market. Independent verification of daily and monthly active user figures remains limited, leaving room for variance between registered and transacting users.

Regulatory outcomes in Egypt, Pakistan and Indonesia, along with any capital requirements tied to the IPO, are not yet public. These factors will determine whether the 2031 vision remains a stretch target or becomes a measurable trajectory.

What to Watch

IPO filing timelines with US regulators, quarterly user and merchant additions across all operating markets, and any regulatory approvals for new licenses in Francophone West Africa will provide the clearest signals on whether OPay’s 2031 targets are progressing or merely aspirational.